The ‘Narrative Turn’ in developing foresight: Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends

Article history: Received 22 December 2013 Accepted 24 February 2014 Available online 20 March 2014 When developing foresight, it is essential to consider the information on which this activity is based. Weak signals, also conceptualised as trends, can be considered the most relevant input for developing foresight in an organisation. While detecting weak signals has traditionally relied on the news media, cultural products such as literature, movies, art, or computer games appear to have been neglected in the practice of foresight. However, literary genres such as novels can be a valuable source for developing foresight. Literature can be characterised as delivering “thick descriptions”. Not only do novels describe social practices, but from them the reader also gains, for instance, deep insights into the feelings and emotions of the characters. These thick descriptions are even more interesting in the context of foresight when one considers that these descriptions play a role in the construction of social reality and therefore can influence, over time, reality, or rather translate fiction into fact. It can be argued that the new departs from cultural products, before translating into widely accepted social practices or mass-market products. The value of using literature in foresight also appears to be related to the notion that these narratives can be read as scenarios, revealing the potential of literature. Because of their narrative structure, these scenarios can overcome cognitive barriers in the development of foresight. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.